White House COVID-19 Mortality Estimates Fall By 90%

Computer-modelled forecasts of COVID-19 mortality rates used to justify government lockdown have lost credibility.

13 hours ago

Italy data: COVID-19 no more virulent than the flu

Data from Italy supports the growing evidence from experts that the COVID-19 virus is no more virulent than the flu.

5 days ago

Ten More Experts Question Coronavirus Panic

Experts are still coming forward questioning the lock-down response of governments to coronavirus.

6 days ago

12 experts are questioning the coronavirus panic.

The current systemic financial crisis is being exasperated by the response of governments to COVID-19

1 week ago

Robust Finance (RF)

A new financial system is already being built by prudent investors.

1 week ago

Crisis Update 19th March 2020 — Smart Money & What Happens Next

What is happening now: Every investor wants out. They have discovered the fiat assets they hold are over-valued and carry too much risk. But there are no buyers.

2 weeks ago

What’s Your Lifeboat — Coronavirus & Titanic — A Photo Story

Is coronavirus the rupture in the bulkheads that finally sinks the fiat financial system?

3 weeks ago

Coronavirus Impact on Stock Markets

This article is written from the perspective of March 2022 Amid the dramatic events starting in late February 2020 almost no one could see the turning point that this would be. In late February stock markets around the world had experience their fastest 10% drop in history.

1 month ago

Coronavirus & the Prudent Investor

Stock markets around the world have seen dramatic falls as fears of a pandemic of the coronavirus spread. The message from pension funds is to stay calm. Australian fund, Energy Super points out that periods of market volatility are to be expected with a long term investment such as a pension scheme. But is that the whole story?

1 month ago

Why the Equity/Bond Portfolio is so High Risk

The major allocation of most portfolios is in equities and bonds. What is the current risk profile of this historically sound approach? Are pension managers meeting fiduciary responsibilities in continuing to build portfolios in this way?

1 month ago

How to Avoid Portfolio Failure — Part Two — Don’t Rely on Government Bailout

In the first article I explained how the risk of financial meltdown through the collapse of major banks and insurers is a design problem built into the system.

1 month ago

How to Avoid Portfolio Failure — Part One — System Design — How the Financial System is Built

This is the first of two articles that outline why any portfolio should only contain a fraction of its allocation to assets whose value depends upon the institutions of the financial system. Those assets I suggest include the majority of equities and bonds and all ETFs.

1 month ago

The Domino Falls — What Happens During Systemic Financial Meltdown (Draft)

Why do the financial markets appear so fragile? Why is there the risk of meltdown? What would such an event look like? By exploring possible scenarios I hope to bring home why systemic financial meltdown is perhaps the greatest risk of our times.

3 months ago

Some Christmas Cheer — How Pension Funds Can Have Their Cake and Eat It.

2019 has been a tough year for pension funds. Low interest rates and over-priced equity markets have made the prospect of future returns bleak. Tens of millions of pensioners and savers face an uncertain future as firms such as GE announce the end to “final salary” schemes

3 months ago

Worried by the US-China trade war? Probably not worried enough.

Worried by the US-China trade war? Probably not worried enough. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act caused the 1929 Stock Market Crash and Great Depression. (See Nathan Lewis’s excellent chapter on the 1930s in Gold the Once and Future Money.)

3 months ago

Can Venture Capital Create an Internet of Finance?

If you are a venture capitalist you may want to read this. If you are not share it with someone who is and they may buy you dinner. Outlined here is how a traditional industry could be ripe for transformation by the VC wealth creation model using a new asset class called Self-Managed Investments (SMIs). The result would be an internet of finance.

4 months ago

How Diversified is Your Portfolio? The Unpalatable Truth, Meeting Fiduciary Responsibilities and What You can do about it.

How diversified is your portfolio? Really? Are you willing to take another look? When the Titanic struck ice no one panicked. It was just inconceivable that a ship that size could sink. At 00:45, 15th April 1912 the first lifeboat was rowed away from Titanic with 28 passengers on board, despite a capacity of 65. The enormity of the situation simply could not be comprehended.

5 months ago

Managing the Greatest Risk of All – What Portfolio Managers can Learn from Venture Capitalists

Just how diversified is your investment portfolio? How would you measure that? While a portfolio may be “diversified” in terms of equities, bonds, ETF’s the dependence of the world’s largest financial institutions upon each other for their solvency means that in terms of systemic risk there is often very little diversification at all.

5 months ago

What Protects Investors from the Greatest Risk of All?

Does your portfolio carry any protection from the greatest risk of all?

6 months ago

How the Fed’s Liquidity Crisis May Benefit Bitcoin Enhanced

Yesterday the New York Fed conducted its first repo in a decade. In the words of Tyler Durden the result was:

6 months ago

Is Your Portfolio Ready for a Market Correction? Comparing Hedge Funds and Self-Managed Investments (SMIs)

Given the shakiness of current markets investors may be taking a second look at their portfolios to check they are ready in case of a significant market correction. In doing so they may wish to consider a new asset class called Self-Managed Investments (SMIs).

6 months ago

When is the Next Bitcoin Price Fall?

In August Bitcoin Enhanced correctly forecast two period of Bitcoin price falls. The result was that the Target Price of Bitcoin Enhanced XBE and CBE tokens are now trading at a 116% premium to Bitcoin. But when will Bitcoin prices fall next? Indeed is it already happening?

6 months ago

Why the World’s Largest Pension Fund Needs to Get Real about Portfolio Diversification

The good news about portfolio diversification is that it is an act of pure self interest in pursuit of the preservation of capital. The bad news is that most portfolios are likely not to go far enough in their diversification attempts, even if they look good on paper

7 months ago

Can you write? Win $2,000 of Bitcoin Enhanced XBE tokens

To mark the collapse of Lehman Brothers on 15th September 2008 Bitcoin Enhanced is giving away 10 Bitcoin Enhanced XBE tokens (approx. value $2,000) for the best article outlining the risks inherent in the fiat system and how people can diversify away from these risks.

7 months ago

Avoiding Armageddon — How Diversified is Your Portfolio?

Diversification is the bedrock of sound investing. Yet as it is practised today I suggest it is nothing more than an illusion. This is because while the rules of sound investing have not changed over the last 100 years, the design of the financial markets has. What does this mean?

7 months ago

How to Profit from Bitcoin Volatility

Whether you are a fan of Bitcoin or not everyone can agree on one thing, Bitcoin is volatile. Last week the king of crypto currencies has lost 14% of its value, falling to just over $10,000 a coin. Yet there is one company that 18 months ago set out to keep all the decentralised advantages of Bitcoin but improve its returns by predicting its price falls.

7 months ago

We trust in Bitcoin Enhanced!

How often did you wonder whether the current risks of the financial system are a decree to wake us up in order to understand that we, as humans, create our world from what we believe in and what we love?

8 months ago

The Bitcoin Enhanced Roadmap

Bitcoin Enhanced is the first of a new asset class designed to enable investors to de-risk their portfolios by diversifying away from the systemic risks of the fiat financial system. These systemic risks are now at a level that no Fortune 500 executive would tolerate them in their own firm.

8 months ago

Invested in Bitcoin? What next?

If you are invested in Bitcoin you probably have a big smile all over your face at the moment. The digital currency has gained $5,000 in the last 3 weeks. At the time of writing it stands at $12,600, a 260% return from its low of $3,500 in January. But if you are a hodler of Bitcoin you probably won’t be quitting your day job just yet. Bitcoin is still off its $19,500 peak in December 2017 and spent a sorrowful 2018 in steady decline, eventually losing more than 80% of its value. So if you are invested in Bitcoin what next? You love the upside volatility but the downside sucks.

9 months ago

What the Fed won't tell you

When you buy Bitcoin or spend dollars at the local grocery store how much effort does it take to imbued the currency you are using with value? Not much I would guess. You simple assume the currency has value and because other people believe the same as you it does.

10 months ago

Bitcoin and Tether - the Great Teachers

Bitcoin and Tether have the largest daily trading volume of all crypto-currencies.[1] I would like to suggest they are also our greatest teachers but not in the way you may at first expect.

11 months ago

Why Invest in a Self-Managed Investment (SMI)?

Do you agree with these two statements? 1. Portfolio diversification is important to me as a means of reducing risk. 2. Another 2008 Financial Crisis can happen at any time. If the answer is yes to either then SMIs have been designed for you. Their aim is to give you exposure to returns and yet keep these returns independent of the financial system. This enables you to have genuine portfolio diversification because you hold assets whose value is not dependent on financial institutions or other underlying assets. It also means that if there is systemic collapse of the financial system, as long as the Internet is still working (it was designed to withstand a nuclear attack) then you still hold your SMIs.

1 year ago

Self-Managed Investments (SMIs) — Designed to Fail

What do Google and Venture Capital firms share that investors do not? Answer: Google and VCs have business models with failure built in. This failure is what makes their business models robust. Sadly investors do not. Let me explain.

1 year ago

Self-Managed Investments (SMIs) — A Return to What Works

This article suggests a new asset class, Self-Managed Investments (SMIs) have the ability disrupt the financial system. The system they disrupt t is inherently fragile posing unacceptable levels of risk for investors and misery for much of the world’s population without a stable currency. As independent silos of value SMIs restore diversification as the cornerstone of sound investing. The same independence builds a more stable financial environment.

1 year ago

Four Ways to Achieve Price Parity in Financial Instruments

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and the growing number of crypto stablecoins have mechanisms that enable them to trade at a specified price. They build on a long history of parity methods from the era of currencies based on the gold standard. I would like to suggest there are four mechanisms by which this parity is or can be achieved. Two mechanisms are active, requiring intervention in the market. The other two are passive.

1 year ago

Self-Managed Investing — What is it? What can it do for you?

Are you looking for a secure way to grow your investments? That security may not be where you expect it. I want to share here some of the reasons why we have built the first in a new class of self-managed financial product. Bitcoin Enhanced is actually two tokens, both designed to track the Target Price of a simulated long/short

1 year ago

Why Make Money? An Answer From the Grave.

This may sound like a stupid question: why make money? Ask a dozen people and you will probably get a dozen different answers. I am not going to ask a dozen people. I am going to ask the dead.

1 year ago

Is the Bitcoin Enhanced Approach to Value Really so Radical?

There has been a lot of noise in the crypto space during 2018 with the collapse of Bitcoin prices, a rash of new “stable coins” and the loudly heralded advent of security tokens. Through most of this time a New Zealand based project has been quietly preparing its own revolution. But is it revolutionary at all?

1 year ago

Ready for 2019? Take the Money Test

Here comes 2019. How financially prepared are you for the coming year? Christopher Coles at Atremis Capital in Austin Texas has created 10 statements you may want to consider.[1] Read each statement and tick each one you agree with. At the end add up your ticks for your final score.

1 year ago

Not Enough Lifeboats on the Titanic — A photo story

The Titanic was a ship so large people said it could not go down. It sank in the North Atlantic Ocean in the early hours of 15 April 1912, after colliding with an iceberg during her maiden voyage from Southampton to New York City.

1 year ago

Do You Know How Good You Are At Making Money?

Maybe you have cured yourself of cancer. Maybe you hold the world speed record for skateboarding. Believe it or not none of these remarkable feats may compare with how good you are at making money.

1 year ago

How to Make Money

Gold has a density of 19.3 g/cm3. Its atomic number is 79. These are physical attributes of the element. What interests me is how people come to give this element value? Or to put this another way, how do people make money? You have probably seen $5 in Monopoly money. You have probably also seen 5 US dollars. Why does one have real-world value and the other not? How is that value created? How is the universe built where people can give some pieces of paper value and other not?

1 year ago

Measure Your Risk: Too Big to Fail or Too Many to Bail?

On October 30th, the S&P 500 went 28 consecutive days without achieving back-to-back up days. That tied the longest streak since the Great Depression. Over the last 10 days the indicator of the US economy has been more volatile than Bitcoin. When markets fall it is only natural people turn their attention to risk.

1 year ago

Should Deutsche Bank Make You Worry About Your Money?

A few days ago I received this email from John, a professional trading friend of mine: “Be mindful of anything you do that has Deutsche Bank as counterparty — the largest derivative counterparty in the market and not much capital to back it up.” John is not the only person who sees weakness in Deutsche Bank. Steve Eisman, one of the few people who saw the 2008 Financial Crisis coming is currently short Deutsche Bank.

1 year ago

Your Route to Financial Freedom

In my last post I hope I have shown that it does not matter what investments you have made. If they remain part of the financial system you are still exposed to the unlimited risks of that system. In this post we are talking about how to de-risk your investments. This means diversifying away from the risk of the financial system collapsing.

1 year ago

Just How Exposed Are You Investments?

Just how exposed do you think your investments are to the risk of loss, even catastrophic loss? You may have a term deposit that pays you interest. You may have bought mutual funds. You may have invested in a tracker fund like the S&P500. If you have made any of these or similar investments you are rightly concerned with risk and wish to minimize it to the fullest possible extent.

1 year ago

Where is the Smart Money Going?

One day we may wake up and realise that the party is over. Two weeks ago the media was bullish about the prospects for the S&P500 with headlines such as: S&P 500 Will Break Past 3000 Quickly, Keep Rising: Blackstone Here’s how one analyst sees the S&P 500 doubling in the next decade Yesterday, the mood was totally different: Dow plunges more than 800 points in worst drop since February … S&P500 index falls 2.0 percent as US bond yields soar and investors …

1 year ago

Why Bitcoin? Why now?

During the reign of King Louis XIV a young girl, Gabrielle Moler, put her head into a roaring hearth fire and held it there without any apparent injury. Eyewitnesses report that afterward her clothing was so hot it could barely be touched, yet her hair, eyelashes, and eyebrows were never so much as singed

1 year ago

Are You Exposed to the Risks of the Fiat Financial System? Part 3: Regulatory Risk

In this third and last part of my analysis of the major risks inherent in the fiat financial system I would like to focus on regulatory risk. Regulators are presented as “champions of the people” but is this really the case?

1 year ago

Are You Exposed to the Risks of the Fiat Financial System? Part 2: Systemic Institutional Failure

The cornerstone of any sound way to grow money is diversification — not having all your eggs in one basket. Because most money is fiat (issued by governments) most investments carry the risks associated with the fiat financial system. In Part 1 I discussed the endemic need for inflation in the fiat system. Now lets move on and look at the risks inherent in how the system is built. Although not without risks themselves, crypto-currencies like Bitcoin and Bitcoin Enhanced avoid these fiat risks and therefore enable greater diversification in the way you grow your money.

1 year ago

Are You Exposed to the Risks of the Fiat Financial System? Part 1: Inflation

Saving is no longer a way people can accumulate wealth. In the United States a person needs to grow their investments by 20% every ten years just to stay even. This is equivalent to putting money into a savings account returning 2% interest a year. At present the best US savings rate is 1.85%. Interest earned on savings accounts is also taxed. In the US current tax brackets are between 10% and 37%.

1 year ago

Bitcoin & the Emperor's New Clothes

Most people believe the breakthrough of Bitcoin was to solve the problem of double-spending that enabled peer to peer transactions without a trusted third party. Can I suggest we take a moment to look deeper? What if Bitcoin reveals a fundamental part of what it means to be human — a part so critical to our success, prosperity and well-being that in a few years we will wonder how we ever lived before we woke up?

1 year ago

What Gives Bitcoin Value? How to Make Your Token grow.

Bitcoin is currently trading at over $7,000 a coin. In the next ten minutes I can create 21 million new Ethereum or Waves tokens. They will have the same features of Bitcoin — blockchain, decentralised, no third party verification — but they will probably be considered worthless. Why does Bitcoin have value but my new tokens do not?

1 year ago

The Wonder of Bitcoin — The real way Bitcoin can change your life.

In 1993 the Institute of Noetic Sciences published a report detailing 3,500 cases in the medical literature of people who had cured themselves of so called “incurable” diseases.[1] Impressive? Yes but not anything nearly as impressive as the ability of people to create currencies. What do I mean by this? In the 3,500 cases of people healing the incurable overwhelmingly their most important act was to change their mental attitude. People cured themselves by changing what they believed about themselves and the world. Their success is a testament to the power of belief to transform lives.

1 year ago

The Market Cycle Wears No Clothes

12 months ago I dove head-first down the crypto educational rabbit hole, after seven years as a forex trader. It’s a steep learning curve. Dozens of market dynamics compete for relevance and attention. What follows is the single most important thing I learned in 12 months of intense study. One market dynamic stands above all others as most important for investors and traders to understand.

1 year ago

What do Bitcoin and the US Dollar have in Common?

Apart from being currencies is there anything else that Bitcoin and the US dollar share in common? Yes. Both have no assets backing them. Since the US dollar left the gold standard in 1971 it has had nothing to support its value. If the dollar collapses dollar holders have no recourse. They will lose everything

1 year ago

Never Give Machine’s Work to a Human

As Agent Smith points out in the 2000 Movie the Matrix, “Never give machine’s work to a human” for the simple reason that they often cock it up. This is exactly what happened with the July forecast of Bitcoin Enhanced. The forecast produced a 60% drop in the value of Bitcoin Enhanced. The forecast should never have happened. A human, in this case me, read the signal the wrong way around. Yes, Bitcoin Enhanced can expect to lose forecasts 40% of the time simply because no forecasts are perfect. But this forecast, which took the Bitcoin Enhanced price below that of Bitcoin for the first time, was simple human error.

1 year ago

Bitcoin and the Fall of Rome

What has the fall of the Western Roman Empire have to teach us about the future of Bitcoin? Rome was at its fullest geographic size in 117 A.D. under Trajan (emperor 98–117). But it lasted until 476 A.D., another 359 years.[1] Why did it last so long?

1 year ago

What will you retire on in a Bear Market?

Bear markets are not good for the $28 trillion of retirement funds in the United States. “Joseph Gallagher was starting to think about retiring from his construction job in 2008 when the bear market ‘beat me up pretty badly,’ he said. “Gallagher waited until 2013 to retire. Now, at age 67, he is taking no chances. “Most of Gallagher’s money is parked in a savings account. ‘There has been too much of a good market the last few years,’ says the Manchester, New Hampshire resident.

1 year ago

Experience the Dark Side of Crypto

For anyone who believes in the future of crypt-currencies I would recommend subscribing to Chain Letter from MIT. Reading it you will find no support for your views. The newsletter takes an anti-crypto stance at every opportunity. This is good. It is important to stay in touch with what the established system still thinks about crypto-currencies.

1 year ago

Top Job Going at Bitcoin Enhanced

The top job at Bitcoin Enhanced has been advertised. The ERC 20 token that improves the returns of Bitcoin by forecasting its price falls has today announced its hunt for a Founder for the Bitcoin Enhanced Foundation. The ad runs: “Bitcoin Enhanced is creating a Foundation to manage its assets and invest in humanitarian projects. It is looking for a Founder to establish the Foundation and take it through its first two years. Council Members of the Foundation will be elected by members of the Bitcoin Enhanced decentralised community.” The idea candidate is likely to be a high profile and be respected member of the crypto-community. The ad stresses that the role is for someone who has already been successful in the crypto space and is looking for the next project where they can do good. “You are a successful and respected member of the crypto community. Financially independent you are looking for the next project where you can apply your creative talent to enable a better world. “ The role will also carries the responsibility to managing along with community members the project’s assets once the token is launched in November. With a price currently far above that of Bitcoin, these assets could be substantial: “You understand how to manage assets, crypto and fiat, and have the ability to inspire confidence in those you work with and the crypto-investor community in general. “ The full advertisement can be found here:

1 year ago

Bitcoin Enhanced (BE): An In-Depth Look

Many in the cryptocurrency space have come to familiarity with the volatility that accompanies Bitcoin, as well as the rest of the cryptocurrency market as a whole. As many cryptocurrencies look to find their place in the ecosystem, BTC seems to be the best choice with regards to a store of value. However, due to the aforementioned volatility, it often seems at times not the most logical choice for a store of value, if the holder has fiat currency value in mind.

1 year ago

Taking the Bite out of Bitcoin Volatility

On 17th December 2017 Bitcoin closed on the Bitfinex exchange at $19,210. Last week, a gruelling six months later, Bitcoin bottomed at $6,443.[1] That is a drop of -66%. It is not the largest fall in Bitcoin’s history. That was a -83% loss of value ending 14th January 2015. Nor is it uncommon. Bitcoin has now lost more than -60% of its value seven times in seven years. If you holding Bitcoin what can you do about this volatility?

1 year ago


Bitcoin’s price history went from $0 to $20K in eight years with years of price stagnation in between and a recent dive from ATH down to the bottom that is somewhere around $6,500.

1 year ago


As earlier mentioned and you may find your research uncovers that there is a growing disenchantment with ICOs. However the main reason why BE cannot do an ICO is that we have a published price which is on the website. As a derivative of BTC + the multiplier this price is the value proposition for token holders. If we do an ICO or coin drop, offering large discounts on the token, then there is always incentive for people to sell the token at less than the published price as they will still make a profit. This would undermine the proposition for token holders who need to feel confidence that they will get the published price (or close to it) for their token. Put another way, we are not doing an ICO in order to allow market forces to maintain the price of the token.

1 year ago

Bitcoin Enhanced (BE): Why It’s Not An ICO

Bitcoin has been seen to be the most successful and trusted cryptocurrency, with success beyond anyone’s imagination with regards to application and price action. Many can argue that BTC is still in its infancy with regards to the aforementioned, with much more positivity to come. That being said, the BTC model has also been seen to be very effective. The total coin supply is low enough that it provides a sense of scarcity and prestige in ownership of BTC. At the same time, the coin supply has been shown to have enough coins to supply sufficient liquidity to a global market.

1 year ago

Ten Times Bitcoin Earnings?

Can you earn 10 times the price gains of Bitcoin? The Bitcoin Enhanced coin tracks the value of Bitcoin except when it forecasts that Bitcoin prices are likely to fall. If Bitcoin does fall during a forecast period then the Bitcoin Enhanced coin rises by the same percentage that Bitcoin fell. Conversely if Bitcoin’s price rose during a forecast period then the Bitcoin Enhanced price falls by a corresponding amount. When a forecast period is over Bitcoin Enhanced continues to track the percentage changes in the Bitcoin price, but now with a multiplier based on whether previous forecasts have been successful. In essence the Bitcoin Enhanced coin takes Bitcoin’s notorious volatility and turns it to positive effect. Because Bitcoin’s value has risen so dramatically since 2009 the compounding effect of turning just some of this volatility around is astounding.

1 year ago

Bitcoin: A Question of Store of Value

At its core, Bitcoin (BTC) is a way to transfer value from one person to the next, easily, quickly, and inexpensively, thus, solving major pain points in the current system. This is similar to email as compared to the traditional mail system, and the innovations and changes that have transpired in response. However, it appears as though BTC has become less of a transactional currency/value, and argued as more of a store of value for holders. This can be due to the complexity of sending small decimal point figures that equate to dollar values, and the need for a calculator to compute said equivalent values. Not only that, but BTC transfers have become more expensive over time, and have become slower, in comparison to alternative cryptocurrencies such as Litecoin (LTC) or Digibyte (DGB). This may change with Lighting Network developments by BTC. However, to many people, BTC seems to make sense as a digital bank of sorts.

1 year ago

Crypto Whales – The Most Influential People In The Cryptoverse

Everyone has heard stories of high school kids who became millionaires mining, collecting and trading cryptocurrencies. Their coins mooned. They became rich. They bought their lambos. As a result, we have scores of hopefuls who want their moon lambos too. But the market has changed. Bitcoin ($7,315.16 – 5/27/18), the crypto reserve currency, reached its ATH back in December 2017 only to drop like a rock from nearly $20,000 mid December to less than $7,000 in early February – a loss of 60% in 45 days.

1 year ago

Believing in Bitcoin

How many people believe Bitcoin represents a new means of exchange? A handful of crypto-enthusiasts and Libertarians? How many believe the decentralised nature of the blockchain enables them to transact peer-to-peer without the need for a centralised authority such as a government or bank? As important — and often overlooked — how many believe Bitcoin is unstoppable? Unlike many other crypto-coins such as Ethereum or Dash Bitcoin has no central organisation. It is managed purely by volunteer developers and Bitcoin miners. With no organisation how many people believe there is very little for government regulators to regulate?

1 year ago